Russia Planning Major Winter Offensive Against Ukraine Amid Economic Strain, Experts Say
Experts predict Russia will launch a large-scale winter offensive against Ukraine to inflict maximum damage and extract concessions, following a failed spring campaign. Russia's economy is under severe pressure, with budget deficits doubling, gold reserves declining sharply, and recruitment rates falling below casualty rates. The anticipated offensive reflects Putin's desperation to reverse military setbacks and domestic economic problems.
According to analysts from major think tanks, Russia is expected to resume large-scale military strikes against Ukraine during the winter months, potentially targeting critical infrastructure including railways and water systems to disrupt supply lines and create humanitarian crises. This strategy follows Russia's spring offensive, which resulted in territorial losses for the first time in three years. Russia's economic situation has deteriorated significantly, with the federal budget deficit reaching $81.4 billion in the first five months of 2024—double the previous year's figure—while oil and gas revenues fell nearly 30%. The Kremlin faces additional pressure from declining recruitment rates, which dropped to approximately 30,000 per month in May, below monthly casualty figures, forcing the military to recruit university students and prison inmates. Experts suggest these compounding pressures may drive Putin toward escalatory military action as a means to achieve negotiated concessions.
What different sources said
- New York PostRight
Desperate Putin planning Hail Mary winter offensive against Ukraine — as Russian economy in death spiral, experts say
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