Pakistan Economic Survey Projects 3.7% GDP Growth for FY2026 Amid Regional Challenges
Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presented the Pakistan Economic Survey (PES) for FY2025-26, projecting real GDP growth at 3.7% and average CPI inflation at 6.7% for the July-May period. The country navigated significant headwinds during the fiscal year, including trade tariff uncertainty, floods in August-September 2025, and a regional conflict in early 2026. The survey highlights what officials describe as the strongest fiscal performance in decades, with a fiscal deficit of just 0.7% of GDP in the July-March period.
Pakistan's annual Economic Survey for FY2025-26, presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb in Islamabad on Thursday, projects real GDP growth at 3.7% for the fiscal year ending June 2026. The survey reported average CPI inflation of 6.7% for the July-May period, with price stability broadly maintained despite a Gulf conflict and its effects on energy prices. Pakistan's current account deficit stood at $252 million in the July-April period, while the trade deficit reached $23.53 billion from July to March. The fiscal deficit was recorded at 0.7% of GDP for the July-March period, which the survey characterizes as the strongest fiscal performance in decades, supported by expenditure control, revenue mobilisation, provincial surpluses, and ongoing fiscal reforms. The primary surplus reached 3.2% of GDP, and public debt stood at 83,285 billion rupees by end of March. Aurangzeb noted the year began with uncertainty over tariffs but that Pakistan reached a competitive export position relative to the US by late July, before facing further disruptions from floods and regional conflict.
What's missing
The survey does not appear to detail the specific methodology or assumptions underlying the 3.7% GDP growth projection, nor does it clarify whether the figure is a full-year estimate or a revised forecast.
What different sources said
- DawnCenter
PES FY2026: GDP growth higher than last year but falls short of 4.2pc target
- Channel NewsAsiaCenter
Pakistan economic survey projects real GDP growth at 3.7% in FY26
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