Morgan Stanley Forecasts AI-Related Global Debt Issuance to Reach $570 Billion in 2026

Morgan Stanley has forecast that AI-related global debt issuance will more than double to nearly $570 billion by the end of 2026, compared to approximately $236 billion recorded as of May 31 — already four times the level seen in the same period a year earlier. The surge is being driven by hyperscalers such as Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, which are projected to collectively spend $700 billion in capital outlays in 2026, with that figure expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2027. These companies, historically reliant on strong internal cash flows, are increasingly tapping debt markets to fund the massive infrastructure demands of AI development. Morgan Stanley noted that hyperscalers are also broadening their investor base through non-USD bond issuance, diversifying their funding sources internationally. The brokerage expects issuance to accelerate in the second half of 2026, and noted that while the fundamental economic backdrop remains solid, bond price action is currently being driven primarily by supply expectations. Financing for chip companies is also evolving, with a shift toward shorter-term deals that are fully repaid over time, reflecting different risk profiles in the AI supply chain.