China's Exports to US Surge 35% in May, Defying Trump's Tariff Expectations

China's customs agency reported Tuesday that exports expanded 19.4% from a year earlier in May 2026, accelerating from April's 14.1% gain and surpassing economist forecasts of around 15%. Shipments to the United States surged 35.4%, the strongest growth rate since March 2021, reversing a prolonged period of double-digit declines that followed the reimposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs. The export boom was concentrated in high-tech categories: integrated circuit exports more than doubled in value year-on-year, overall high-tech goods rose 50%, and passenger car exports jumped 73%, with new energy vehicles — including EVs and plug-in hybrids — more than doubling to 435,000 units. Imports also beat expectations, rising 27.4% and pushing the trade surplus to $105.4 billion for the month. However, the strong headline figures mask significant internal imbalances: domestic passenger car sales fell 23.4% for the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year declines, and economists warn that retail sales growth may approach zero in May. Analysts caution that part of the U.S.-bound export rebound reflects a favorable base effect following last year's Liberation Day tariff shock, and that overseas stockpiling driven by Iran-war energy fears may be a temporary tailwind that fades as buyers draw down inventories.