Yes, Elon Musk Really Did Think SpaceX Was Going to Fail — And He Said So Repeatedly

The claim is straightforward and, unusually for viral stories about tech billionaires, it checks out completely. Elon Musk has openly and repeatedly said he thought SpaceX was probably going to fail when he started it. This isn't a rumor or a misquote — it comes directly from him, across more than a decade of interviews and public appearances.

In a 2013 TED Talk, Musk said he thought SpaceX was 'probably' going to fail and described how painful it was to watch the first three Falcon 1 rockets explode. A year later, he told CBS News's 60 Minutes that he put the odds of success below 10% at the start and had braced himself emotionally for the company to collapse. Ashlee Vance's 2015 biography of Musk adds that he even told his first wife he expected the venture to fail.

The Guardian reported that Musk called investing his own money into SpaceX a 'foolish' decision by conventional financial standards — he knew the historical odds of a new rocket company succeeding were terrible. CNBC documented that after three consecutive Falcon 1 launch failures between 2006 and 2008, Musk feared the company truly was finished. The fourth launch in September 2008 succeeded, and SpaceX survived.

The strongest version of any pushback here might be: was Musk just saying this for effect, to build a better story? It's possible he's leaned into the narrative over time. But the core claim — that he genuinely expected failure and invested anyway — is consistent across too many independent sources and too many years to dismiss as spin.

This story spreads because it's true and because it's a great story. It fits the classic 'visionary bets everything on a long shot and wins' arc that entrepreneurial culture loves. That's worth noting: not all viral claims about famous founders are false. Sometimes the compelling version is also the accurate one — and that's exactly why it's worth checking either way.