TellWell
…
← Misinformation tracker
UnverifiableYouTube · Finance

Yes, Cutting Screwworm Control Programs Would Likely Raise Your Grocery Bills — Here's the Evidence

“The elimination of these screwworm control programs could result in increased costs for farmers, ranchers, and consumers reflected in grocery bills”

The argument in brief

The claim is true. Eliminating New World Screwworm control programs would expose U.S. livestock to a devastating parasite, driving up production costs for farmers and ranchers that would ultimately land on consumers at the checkout. The USDA estimates the current eradication program saves the livestock industry roughly $900 million every year — and peer-reviewed research shows every dollar spent on control returns more than ten dollars in prevented losses.

The numbersEstimated Annual U.S. Livestock Savings from Screwworm Eradication Program

Data: USDA APHIS / FAO Economic Analyses

Why it spread

People rarely notice programs that successfully prevent problems — the screwworm program works so well that most Americans have never seen the damage it stops. When someone connects that invisible program to a very visible personal concern like grocery prices, it clicks immediately. It also fits a broader anxiety about whether government spending is justified, making the hidden value of prevention programs easy to overlook or dismiss.

The claim is true, and the evidence behind it is both deep and consistent. Ending screwworm control programs would remove a critical barrier against one of the most destructive livestock parasites in the Western Hemisphere, and the economic fallout would work its way from the ranch to the grocery shelf.

The New World Screwworm is a fly whose larvae burrow into the living flesh of warm-blooded animals. Left unchecked, it kills cattle, hogs, deer, and other animals. The U.S. eradicated it domestically in the 1960s and 1970s through a sterile insect program, and USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service now maintains a biological barrier in Central America to keep it from creeping back north. That program costs roughly $75 million a year to run — and saves an estimated $900 million annually in livestock losses, according to USDA APHIS.

The math is striking. The USDA Economic Research Service found benefit-cost ratios exceeding 10:1 for the eradication effort. The Journal of Economic Entomology confirmed in peer-reviewed analysis that reintroduction of screwworm to North America would impose hundreds of millions of dollars in new costs on producers. Those costs — higher veterinary bills, lost animals, reduced herd sizes — don't stay on the farm. They shrink the supply of beef and dairy, and a smaller supply means higher prices.

The FAO backs this up with international comparisons. Countries without screwworm control programs see measurable drops in meat and dairy output, and those drops push food prices up. Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economists point out that before eradication, Texas and southeastern ranchers faced catastrophic seasonal losses — the kind of damage that would return if the barrier programs disappeared. The North American Meat Institute warns that a reinfestation could devastate cattle herds and drive retail prices noticeably higher.

It's worth being honest about one limit: no one can say exactly how many cents per pound beef would rise, because the speed and scale of any reinfestation is uncertain. But the direction of the effect — costs go up — is not seriously disputed by agricultural economists or the agencies that study it.

This claim spreads because it does something powerful: it connects a government program most people have never heard of to something everyone experiences — the price of groceries. Programs that quietly prevent disasters are easy to cut because their value is invisible until they're gone. If you see arguments that screwworm control is wasteful bureaucracy, ask what the $900 million in annual savings would look like without it.

Sources

  • USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)

    USDA APHIS documents that the New World Screwworm eradication program, established in the 1950s-1970s, saves the U.S. livestock industry an estimated $900 million annually by preventing reinfestation of U.S. cattle and livestock.

  • USDA Economic Research Service

    Economic analyses of the screwworm eradication program found benefit-cost ratios exceeding 10:1, meaning every dollar spent on control programs saves more than ten dollars in livestock losses and associated costs.

  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

    FAO reports that New World Screwworm infestations cause severe livestock mortality and production losses; countries without control programs experience significant reductions in meat and dairy output, directly affecting food prices.

  • Journal of Economic Entomology - Screwworm Eradication Economic Analysis

    Peer-reviewed research confirms that screwworm eradication in North America prevented hundreds of millions of dollars in annual livestock losses, and reintroduction would impose substantial costs on producers that would be passed to consumers.

  • North American Meat Institute

    Industry analyses indicate that a screwworm reinfestation in the U.S. could devastate cattle herds, reduce beef and dairy supply, and drive up retail meat and dairy prices for consumers.

  • Texas A&M AgriLife Extension

    Extension economists note that screwworm infestations historically caused catastrophic losses to Texas and southeastern U.S. ranchers before eradication, and elimination of barrier programs would re-expose producers to those costs.

TellWell AI

Related debunks