Claim That Property Values Have Declined in Both Sydney and Melbourne: Partially False
“Property values have declined in Sydney and Melbourne”
The argument in brief
The claim lumps two cities together, but their markets have diverged sharply. As of March 2025, Sydney dwelling values are up approximately 3.3% over the prior 12 months according to CoreLogic's Home Value Index, while Melbourne is down roughly 3.0% over the same period. The claim is true for Melbourne right now, false for Sydney, and misleading about both cities when it draws on the 2022–2023 downturn without acknowledging Sydney's full recovery.
Data: CoreLogic Home Value Index & ABS RPPI, 2022–2025
Why it spread
The 2022–2023 rate-driven downturn was dramatic and heavily covered, so the image of falling Sydney and Melbourne prices lodged firmly in public memory. Melbourne's ongoing softness keeps refreshing that narrative for anyone paying attention to one city. People naturally generalise from a vivid recent event or a single data point to a broader pattern, especially when the story fits existing anxieties about interest rates and housing affordability. The claim feels plausible because it was true — just not for both cities, and not anymore for one of them.
The claim is that property values have declined in Sydney and Melbourne. The verdict is partially false. Melbourne has genuinely softened, but Sydney has been rising, and treating the two cities as a single story distorts what is actually happening in each market.
The strongest evidence against the claim comes from CoreLogic's Home Value Index for March 2025, which shows Sydney dwelling values up approximately 3.3% over the prior 12 months. The Australian Bureau of Statistics Residential Property Price Indexes for the December 2024 quarter independently confirm this, recording Sydney prices up roughly 5% year-on-year. PropTrack's February 2025 Home Price Index puts Sydney's annual gain at approximately 4.1%. Three separate, primary data sources all point in the same direction: Sydney is not declining.
Melbourne is a different story, and that part of the claim deserves to be taken seriously. CoreLogic's March 2025 data shows Melbourne down approximately 3.0% over the prior 12 months. The ABS December 2024 quarter data records a modest annual decline of around 1–2%, and PropTrack puts Melbourne's annual fall at approximately 1.8%. The range across indexes reflects methodological differences, but the direction is consistent: Melbourne has experienced a real, if modest, decline in the current cycle.
The steelman version of the broader claim points to the 2022–2023 rate-rise cycle, when both cities did fall hard. According to CoreLogic data published in early 2023, Sydney dropped approximately 13.8% peak-to-trough between May 2022 and January 2023, and Melbourne fell approximately 8.5% over the same period. Those were genuine, widely reported declines. The problem is that the claim treats that episode as the current reality. The Reserve Bank of Australia's Financial Stability Review from October 2023 explicitly noted that Australian housing prices had broadly recovered from the 2022 downturn, with Sydney returning to near-record highs by mid-2023. Using 2022–2023 figures to describe 2025 conditions is applying an outdated denominator to a changed situation.
What is genuinely true: Melbourne is underperforming, and the 2022–2023 downturn was real and severe for both cities. What is false: Sydney is currently declining. What is misleading: presenting both cities as sharing the same trajectory when CoreLogic, the ABS, and PropTrack all show them moving in opposite directions over the past year.
The manipulation pattern here is selective time-framing combined with geographic conflation. Someone can cite a real data point — the 2022–2023 crash, or Melbourne's current softness — and extend it to a city or time period where it does not apply. Watch for claims about Australian property that do not specify which city, which time period, and which index. When those three anchors are missing, the claim is almost certainly borrowing credibility from one context to make a point about another.
Sources
- CoreLogic Home Value Index, Australia (March 2025)
As of March 2025, Sydney dwelling values were up approximately 3.3% over the prior 12 months and Melbourne values were down approximately 3.0% over the prior 12 months, according to CoreLogic's monthly Home Value Index.
- CoreLogic Home Value Index, Australia (2022–2023 downturn)
During the 2022–2023 rate-rise cycle, Sydney values fell approximately 13.8% peak-to-trough (May 2022 – January 2023) and Melbourne fell approximately 8.5% peak-to-trough, per CoreLogic data published in early 2023.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics – Residential Property Price Indexes (Dec 2024 quarter)
ABS Residential Property Price Indexes for the December 2024 quarter showed Sydney prices up roughly 5% year-on-year, while Melbourne recorded a modest annual decline of around 1–2%, confirming divergent trajectories between the two cities.
- PropTrack Home Price Index (February 2025)
PropTrack's February 2025 report found Melbourne home prices had fallen approximately 1.8% over the prior year, while Sydney prices had risen approximately 4.1% over the same period, illustrating that the two cities are not moving in tandem.
- Reserve Bank of Australia – Financial Stability Review (October 2023)
The RBA's October 2023 Financial Stability Review noted that Australian housing prices had broadly recovered from the 2022 downturn, with Sydney prices returning to near-record highs by mid-2023, contradicting any claim of sustained broad decline.