No, Canadians Haven't Turned on Climate Change — But They Have Turned on the Carbon Tax
“In 2025, public opinion polling showed that Canadian consensus on climate change is showing cracks”
The argument in brief
A claim circulating in 2025 suggests Canadian consensus on climate change is cracking. The verdict is partially false: belief in human-caused climate change has stayed rock-steady at around 70-75% for years. What has genuinely eroded is support for specific policies like the federal carbon tax — and conflating those two things is the heart of the misleading claim.
Data: Abacus Data / Angus Reid Institute, 2019-2024
Why it spread
This claim found an audience because it fits a ready-made political narrative — especially for voices opposed to the carbon tax — that the public is finally pushing back on climate policy overreach. The carbon tax really is unpopular, so the story feels true. It's easy to miss the crucial distinction between rejecting a specific policy tool and rejecting the underlying science, especially when both get labeled 'climate skepticism' in the same breath.
The claim is that 2025 polling reveals Canadians are losing faith in climate change itself — that the national consensus is fracturing. That framing is misleading. The science consensus among the public hasn't moved much at all. What has shifted is how Canadians feel about paying for climate solutions, and those are very different things.
Abacus Data tracking from 2019 through 2024 shows belief in human-caused climate change holding steady between 70 and 75 percent of Canadians — essentially flat across six years. The Environics Institute's Focus Canada 2024 survey confirms that concern about climate change remains high, though economic worries have climbed the priority list since the post-pandemic cost-of-living crunch hit.
Here's where the kernel of truth lives: policy support really has slipped. The Canadian Climate Institute and Leger polling both found that majority opposition to the consumer carbon levy had solidified by late 2024. Angus Reid documented growing partisan polarization, with Conservative supporters increasingly skeptical of climate policy costs. That's a real and significant development — just not the same as doubting the science.
The strongest version of this claim would argue that policy skepticism is a leading indicator — that people reject the solutions first, then the problem. That's worth watching. But right now, the data doesn't support that conclusion. Outright climate science denial remains a minority position in Canada, according to Angus Reid, and there's no polling trend showing it's growing.
This kind of claim is worth scrutinizing carefully because it can become a self-fulfilling political story. If media and politicians treat eroding carbon tax support as proof that Canadians are done with climate action broadly, it shapes the policy conversation in ways the actual polling doesn't justify. Watch for headlines that slide between 'opposition to carbon pricing' and 'climate skepticism' without flagging the difference.
Sources
- Abacus Data (2024-2025)
Abacus Data polling consistently shows roughly 70-75% of Canadians believe climate change is real and human-caused, with majority support for climate action remaining stable through 2024-2025.
- Environics Institute Survey of Canadians 2024
Focus Canada 2024 found that concern about climate change remains high among Canadians, though economic anxieties have elevated in priority relative to environmental issues compared to 2021 peaks.
- Leger Poll / Association for Canadian Studies 2024
Leger polling showed that while belief in climate change remains broadly held, support for specific climate policies (carbon tax, emissions regulations) has declined, particularly in Alberta and among Conservative voters.
- Angus Reid Institute 2024
Angus Reid found growing partisan polarization on climate policy in Canada, with Conservative supporters increasingly skeptical of climate policy costs, though outright denial of climate science remains a minority position.
- Canadian Climate Institute / Clean Prosperity 2024
Research indicates that while Canadians broadly accept climate science, support for specific measures like the carbon price has eroded significantly, with polls showing majority opposition to the consumer carbon levy by late 2024.
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