No, 81% of Great Nicobar Island Won't Stay 'Forested' — The Number Hides What's Actually Being Lost
“81% of Great Nicobar Island will remain forested after the airport project”
The argument in brief
The Indian government claims that because development covers only about 18% of Great Nicobar Island, roughly 81-82% will remain forested. This is technically derived from real figures but deeply misleading: the 130+ sq km being cleared includes the island's most ecologically irreplaceable tropical rainforest, leatherback sea turtle nesting beaches, and habitats for endemic species. The raw percentage tells you how much land is affected — not how much ecological value is being destroyed.
Data: NITI Aayog Holistic Development Plan & MoEFCC Forest Clearance Documents
Why it spread
The '81% forested' figure is easy to repeat and hard to argue with on the surface — it comes from official documents and uses real numbers. People naturally trust percentages from government plans, and a figure above 80% sounds like strong environmental protection. Most readers have no way to know that the specific areas being cleared matter far more than their share of total island acreage.
The claim is straightforward: since the NITI Aayog's development plan targets roughly 166 sq km of Great Nicobar Island's 910 sq km total area, the government argues that about 81-82% of the island will remain forested or undeveloped. The verdict is partially false — the number is real, but the conclusion it's used to support is not.
The problem is what sits inside that 18-19% being developed. According to forest clearance documents reviewed by The Wire Science, the project involves felling approximately 9.64 lakh trees across nearly 130 sq km of pristine tropical rainforest. The Ministry of Environment's own Forest Advisory Committee granted Stage-I clearance for diverting 130.75 sq km of forest land — not scrubland or degraded terrain, but some of the most intact forest on the island.
A scientific assessment published in Current Science Journal notes that Great Nicobar has around 721 sq km of dense forest. The development footprint eats into a disproportionately high share of the island's ecologically critical zones. Sanctuary Asia and independent environmental analysts point out that the cleared areas include leatherback sea turtle nesting beaches, parts of the Galathea Bay Wildlife Sanctuary, and territories of the Shompen, a particularly vulnerable indigenous tribal group. You cannot replace these with the undisturbed forest that remains elsewhere on the island.
To be fair to the strongest version of the government's argument: 166 sq km out of 910 sq km really is about 18%, and large portions of the island will remain physically untouched. That is not fabricated. But as the Bombay Natural History Society and Wildlife Institute of India have flagged, the Environmental Impact Assessment did not adequately account for the irreplaceable biodiversity value of the specific areas being cleared. Percentage of land area and percentage of ecological value are not the same thing.
This kind of statistic spreads because a high-sounding number from an official source feels like proof of responsible planning. It also fits a familiar story: development and environment striking a reasonable balance. But when the 19% being cleared contains the rarest habitats and the 81% left behind is comparatively less sensitive terrain, the percentage is doing rhetorical work, not scientific work. When you see land-use claims expressed only as percentages of total area, always ask: which 19%?
Sources
- National Institute of Ocean Technology / NITI Aayog Holistic Development Plan
The NITI Aayog plan for holistic development of Great Nicobar Island proposes development on approximately 166 sq km out of the island's total 910 sq km area, which is roughly 18% of the island. The government has cited this to claim 82% will remain forested or undeveloped.
- Sanctuary Asia / Independent Environmental Analysis
Environmental analysts and conservationists point out that the 166 sq km earmarked for development includes some of the most ecologically sensitive and biodiverse areas of the island, including tropical rainforest, leatherback sea turtle nesting beaches, and indigenous Shompen tribal territories, making the '81-82% forested' framing misleading.
- The Wire Science
Reporting indicates that the forest clearance approved for the project involves felling approximately 9.64 lakh trees across nearly 130 sq km of pristine tropical rainforest, which contradicts the claim that the forest cover impact is minimal.
- Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) Forest Advisory Committee
The Forest Advisory Committee granted Stage-I forest clearance for diversion of 130.75 sq km of forest land for the project, which represents a significant portion of the island's most ecologically intact forest, not a marginal area as implied by the '81%' claim.
- Current Science Journal - Ecological Assessment
Scientific assessments note that Great Nicobar Island has approximately 721 sq km of dense forest cover. The development footprint of ~166 sq km represents about 23% of the island's total area and a higher proportion of its ecologically critical zones, making the residual '81%' figure misleading in ecological terms.
- Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS) and Wildlife Institute of India concerns
Expert bodies raised concerns that the Environmental Impact Assessment was inadequate and that the claim of minimal forest loss ignores the irreplaceable biodiversity value of the specific areas being cleared, including endemic species habitats and the Galathea Bay Wildlife Sanctuary.