Consumer Sentiment in June 2022 Was Lower Than During COVID — But Only on One Index, Not All

The claim is that consumer sentiment in early June was lower than at any point during the COVID-19 pandemic. The verdict is partially false — one major index confirms it, another directly contradicts it, and treating either as the whole picture is misleading.

The strongest evidence supporting the claim comes from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the most widely cited consumer sentiment gauge in the United States. Its June 2022 preliminary reading, confirmed at 50.0 by Reuters on June 24, 2022, was the lowest in the survey's entire history dating back to 1952. That is not a close call: the Michigan index's COVID-19 pandemic trough was 71.8 in April 2020, meaning June 2022 came in nearly 22 points lower. For context, the previous all-time low was 51.7 in May 1980 during a period of severe recession and inflation. On the Michigan index alone, the claim is straightforwardly true.

Here is where the claim breaks down. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, an equally legitimate and widely tracked measure, reached 98.7 in June 2022. Its own COVID-era trough was 85.7 in April 2020. By this measure, June 2022 sentiment was actually higher than the pandemic low, not lower. Two major indices, the same month, opposite conclusions. Generalizing to "consumer sentiment" as if it were a single agreed-upon number ignores this direct contradiction.

The steelman version of the claim — that the Michigan index in June 2022 broke below its COVID floor — is factually accurate and was widely reported. The problem is the leap from one index's historic low to a universal statement about how Americans felt. The Michigan index and the Conference Board index measure overlapping but distinct things: the Michigan survey emphasizes personal finances and buying conditions, while the Conference Board weights current business and labor market conditions more heavily. Neither is wrong; they simply capture different facets of confidence, and cherry-picking the one that produces the more dramatic headline is the manipulation at work here.

It is also worth noting the historical context the University of Michigan's own data provides. The COVID-19 pandemic trough of 71.8 was, by historical standards, a relatively mild drop — never approaching the 1980 floor. That made the June 2022 plunge to 50.0 genuinely shocking, but it also means the COVID benchmark used in the comparison was not a particularly low bar to clear.

The pattern to watch for is index-shopping: selecting whichever economic indicator produces the most alarming or politically convenient result, then presenting it as if it represents the full picture. When you see a sweeping claim about "consumer sentiment," ask immediately which index, which month, and what the same period looks like on at least one other major measure. If those details are absent, the claim is almost certainly incomplete.