Western U.S. Wildfire Suppression Costs Projected to Rise Sharply Through 2100
A new study projects that federal wildfire suppression spending in the western United States will increase significantly through the end of the century as climate change drives higher fire activity. Between 2014 and 2023, the region already experienced a 268% increase in inflation-adjusted fire spending compared to 1985-1994, with area burned rising 131%. Modeling suggests the northwestern United States will see the largest increases in both wildfire activity and suppression costs, with implications for how federal agencies manage limited budgets.
Research published in Earth's Future examined how climate change will affect wildfire suppression spending by the U.S. Department of the Interior and Forest Service through 2100. Using statistical models linking climate variables like temperature and water vapor deficit to fire activity and costs, researchers ran 10 scenarios based on five climate models and two emissions pathways. All scenarios projected increases in both area burned and suppression spending, with projected land burned on federal lands increasing 80% by mid-century and 208% by late century. Annual spending increases are projected at approximately 0.65% for the Department of the Interior and 0.87% for the Forest Service from 2020 to 2100. The northwestern United States consistently showed the largest projected increases across all scenarios, though uncertainty grows over longer time horizons.
Limitations & open questions
The study's limitations regarding model uncertainty, the feasibility of implementing projected spending increases, and potential policy interventions or mitigation strategies that could alter these projections are not discussed in this summary.
What different sources said
- Eos (AGU)Center
As Wildfires Increase in the West, So Does Suppression Spending
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