Ukraine's Air Force Warns of High-Probability Oreshnik Missile Launch Within 24 Hours

On June 12, 2026, Ukraine's Air Force warned of a high probability that Russia would launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile against Ukraine within 24 hours, based on preparations observed at the Kapustin Yar missile range in southern Russia. The Oreshnik, believed to be a modified version of the Rubezh surface-to-surface missile, belongs to a class of weapons previously banned under the Cold War-era INF Treaty, from which both Russia and the United States have since withdrawn. Russia has launched the missile against Ukraine three times during the full-scale war, with all strikes using inert rather than explosive warheads, limiting physical damage while serving as a tool of strategic intimidation. The missile is capable of deploying up to six nuclear-capable reentry vehicles carrying a total of 36 warheads, and Russia has previously threatened to use it against Ukrainian 'decision-making centers,' including Kyiv. Adding a notable complication to the missile's narrative, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently admitted that previous Oreshnik launches were part of testing programs rather than combat operations, directly contradicting earlier official claims of battlefield use. President Zelensky separately urged Ukrainians to heed air raid alerts over the coming days, suggesting a broader large-scale attack may be imminent following a series of mass strikes on Kyiv over the past month, including a May 14 overnight attack that killed 24 people.