Study Questions Theoretical Basis for AI Power-Seeking Risk Arguments
A new arXiv paper challenges the instrumental convergence thesis, a key theoretical foundation for arguments that advanced AI systems will inevitably seek power and pose existential risks to humanity. The paper examines leading defenses of the thesis and argues none provide sufficient support for the power-seeking risk argument. The findings have implications for how AI safety researchers and policymakers approach existential risk assessment and AI governance.
A computer science paper published on arXiv examines the theoretical underpinnings of concerns that artificial intelligence systems will become power-seeking agents that could disempower humanity. The author analyzes the instrumental convergence thesis—the claim that acquiring power is an instrumental goal that rational agents will converge on regardless of their final objectives—and evaluates the major philosophical and technical defenses of this thesis. The paper concludes that existing defenses do not establish the thesis in a sufficiently strong form to support arguments that power-seeking represents an inevitable or primary existential risk from advanced AI. The work addresses implications for longtermism (the philosophical view that future risks deserve major attention), AI governance frameworks, and the methodology used to study potential harms from artificial agents.
What's missing
The paper's specific counterarguments to the instrumental convergence thesis are not detailed in the abstract; the full paper would be needed to evaluate the strength of the author's critique. Additionally, the abstract does not indicate whether the author proposes alternative frameworks for assessing AI risks or simply argues the power-seeking argument is weaker than claimed.
What different sources said
- arXiv cs.AICenter
Revisiting the shutdown problem
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