Study Compares Two Weather Prediction Microphysics Schemes in Regional Simulations
Researchers evaluated how two operational microphysics parameterization schemes (NSSL and TEMPO) influence convective organization and precipitation in the MPAS-A weather model across subtropical and tropical regions. The schemes produced different storm structures and rainfall patterns, with TEMPO generating more numerous weaker cores and NSSL producing fewer stronger cores, though both diverged more from observations than from each other. The findings highlight persistent challenges in accurately representing convection and precipitation in numerical weather prediction models, particularly across different atmospheric regimes.
A new study published on arXiv examined how two operational microphysics schemes influence convective organization and precipitation in the Model for Prediction Across Scales - Atmosphere (MPAS-A) using high-resolution simulations down to 1-km resolution. The research compared the National Severe Storm Labs (NSSL) microphysics scheme with the Thompson-Eidhammer Microphysics Parameterization for Operations (TEMPO) across three subtropical and tropical regions during boreal summer under both strongly- and weakly-forced atmospheric regimes. While both schemes captured the general timing and placement of convection, they differed substantially in storm structure and rainfall distribution: TEMPO produced more numerous, weaker convective cores with earlier and more widespread precipitation, while NSSL favored fewer, stronger cores with more intense, spatially concentrated rainfall. Both schemes exhibited significant limitations, producing scattered convective cells with minimal mesoscale organization and insufficient stratiform precipitation compared to observations. The study also found regime-dependent errors, with rainfall under-represented in strongly-forced conditions and over-represented in weakly-forced conditions, suggesting that improving microphysics representation across different atmospheric regimes remains essential for weather prediction accuracy.
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Comparison of Two Operational Microphysics Schemes Across Various Regional-MPAS Simulations
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