SpaceX IPO Expected to Open with Double-Digit Gains Based on Pre-IPO Futures Trading
SpaceX perpetual futures contracts are trading around $162 on crypto platforms, suggesting a potential 20% first-day pop above the $135 IPO price when the company begins trading Friday on Nasdaq. The company is reportedly four times oversubscribed, indicating strong investor demand. However, analysts caution that crypto traders' moderate enthusiasm may not guarantee broader market euphoria once actual trading begins.
SpaceX perpetual futures—unregulated derivative contracts popular among crypto traders—are trading approximately 20% above the company's fixed IPO price of $135 per share, down from peaks exceeding $220 in May. The company's IPO is reportedly four times oversubscribed, with SpaceX set to list Friday on Nasdaq at a $1.77 trillion valuation that would make it the seventh-largest U.S. public company. However, analysts note that perpetual futures markets are dominated by highly leveraged, risk-tolerant traders and may not reflect broader investor sentiment. The decline in SpaceX perp prices coincides with a broader crypto market downturn, with Bitcoin and Ether down 20-23% since the perp launched in May, raising questions about the durability of demand once real price discovery occurs.
What's missing
The article does not explain what determines the fixed IPO price of $135 or detail the underwriting process and pricing methodology used by SpaceX's investment banks.
What different sources said
- CNBCCenter
SpaceX primed for double-digit pop on first day, if ‘perps’ trading is any guide
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