New Physics-Based Method Quantifies Defensive Pressure in Soccer Using Arrival Time
A new study proposes quantifying defensive pressure on a soccer ball carrier using the minimum time it would take the nearest opponent to reach the ball carrier's location. Researchers applied this framework to tracking and event data from all 306 matches in Japan's top professional football league during the 2023 season. The approach offers a more interpretable, assumption-light alternative to existing pressure metrics and could inform tactical analysis of pressing dynamics.
Researchers have introduced a physics-based method for measuring defensive pressure in soccer, defining it as the minimum arrival time (MAT) for the nearest opponent to reach the ball carrier's position. Using synchronized event and tracking data from the full 2023 J1 League season (306 matches), the study analyzed how this quantity evolves throughout ball-possession intervals. Key findings show that opponent MAT tends to decrease as a possession progresses — meaning pressure builds — and then rises again at the start of the next possession after the ball is released. Possessions that begin under higher defensive pressure are associated with less forward ball progression, and possessions that end under higher pressure are more likely to result in a turnover, particularly for intentional open-play passes. The authors argue that MAT provides a physically grounded, interpretable baseline metric for studying pressing tactics from tracking data, avoiding the additional modeling assumptions that complicate some existing pressure measures.
What's missing
The study relies on data from a single league (J1 League, Japan) in a single season, leaving open whether findings generalize to leagues with different playing styles or physical profiles. The study does not compare MAT's predictive validity against existing pressure metrics head-to-head on outcome measures, which would help establish its relative utility.
What different sources said
- arXiv physicsCenter
Quantifying defensive pressure on the ball carrier in soccer based on minimum arrival time
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