NAR Chief Economist Forecasts US Median Home Price Could Reach $1 Million by 2050
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, projects the median US single-family home price could reach $1 million by 2050, based on steady annual growth of 3-4%. The median home price was $429,300 in June 2024, meaning prices would need to more than double over the next 26 years. The forecast highlights ongoing affordability concerns while suggesting near-term price growth will remain modest.
National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun presented a forecast at an economic forum suggesting the median single-family home sale price in the US could reach $1 million by 2050, compared to the current median of $429,300. Yun's projection is based on historical patterns of steady annual home-price appreciation of 3-4%, noting that similar price increases have occurred in markets like San Francisco over the past three decades. He acknowledged the forecast is speculative but pointed to precedent: the median national home price was barely above $100,000 in 1990, a figure that would have seemed unimaginable at the time. While the long-term outlook appears sobering for affordability, Yun indicated that near-term price growth should remain moderate at 1-3% annually, which he characterized as healthy since it would remain below income growth rates of 3-4%. He also noted that some formerly hot markets like Austin and San Diego are experiencing price slowdowns, though he suggested these may be temporary corrections before renewed appreciation.
What's missing
The article does not discuss how inflation adjustments would affect this forecast—whether the $1 million figure represents nominal or inflation-adjusted dollars, which is crucial for understanding real purchasing power. Additionally, there is limited discussion of regional variation, as the $1 million median would be reached much sooner in high-cost markets like California while potentially never occurring in lower-cost regions.
How coverage differed
Business Insider's framing emphasizes the affordability crisis and negative implications for homebuyers, using language like 'punishing mix' and 'sobering forecast.' The article leads with the crisis angle rather than presenting the economist's full context about historical precedent and moderate near-term expectations, which could reflect a left-leaning outlet's tendency to highlight economic hardship narratives.
What different sources said
- Business InsiderLeft
The typical US home could cost $1 million by 2050, according to an economist
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