Kyrsten Sinema's Switch to Independent Status Complicates 2024 Senate Landscape for Democrats
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced she is leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent, though she will continue to caucus with Democrats in the Senate. While the Democratic caucus maintains its 51-member voting bloc, Sinema's shift removes her from primary accountability and may further distance her voting record from party positions. The move reshapes the 2024 Senate map and raises questions about whether Democrats will field a primary challenger in the competitive purple state.
Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona senator who has been a contentious figure within the Democratic caucus, announced her decision to become an independent on Friday. Despite the party change, Sinema will continue to caucus with Democrats, preserving their 51-member Senate majority. However, the shift has significant implications for Democratic strategy: Sinema's historical voting record shows she sided with her party only 69% of the time on partisan votes between 2013 and 2020, compared to the 90% average for Democrats. With her approval rating among Arizona Democrats at just 25% in autumn 2022 polling, she faced a difficult primary battle. By becoming independent, Sinema eliminates the need to win a Democratic primary but must now build a coalition of Democrats, independents, and Republicans—an incentive structure that may push her voting record further rightward. The decision creates uncertainty about whether Democrats will challenge her in 2024, as they typically avoid splitting votes against independent allies like Bernie Sanders and Angus King, though the electoral dynamics in Arizona differ from those precedents.
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How Kyrsten Sinema's decision makes Democrats' 2024 Senate map tighter
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