ISW Assessment: Russia May Launch Oreshnik Missile at Ukraine Within 48 Hours as Battlefield Situation Assessed on Russia Day

The Institute for the Study of War's June 12, 2026 assessment warns that Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik IRBM at Ukraine imminently, with the US reportedly having alerted Ukraine to the threat. On Russia Day, Putin met with servicemembers to tout military technological advances—including AI-integrated drones and EW systems—while conceding that Russian forces are not advancing 'as quickly as we would like,' though he did not acknowledge Ukrainian counterattack gains in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts since March 2026. In Kostyantynivka, Russia's assessed main effort for the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, Russian forces have made incremental tactical gains and likely consolidated positions beyond mere infiltration, but ISW assessed that coordinated footage releases were part of a cognitive warfare effort to exaggerate Russian presence; ISW maps confirm Russian infiltration into central and northern districts while Ukrainian forces maintain positions contrary to Russian claims of full control. Ukraine's expanding strike campaign hit major Russian oil infrastructure overnight, including the Tolyattikauchuk Chemical Plant in Samara Oblast—which produces 25% of Russia's synthetic rubber—and refineries in Tatarstan, while Russian forces launched 117 drones against Ukraine. ISW also reported that Russia is constructing at least five long-range drone launch sites in Bryansk, Oryol, and Smolensk oblasts near the Belarusian border, assessed as intended to support drone strikes against Ukraine rather than as preparation for NATO offensive action. A Communist Party State Duma deputy publicly criticized the Kremlin's war strategy and accused the political elite of losing touch with ordinary Russians, a rare dissenting voice that Kremlin-affiliated media did not amplify.