Iran War's Energy Crisis Will Persist Long After Peace Deal, Experts Warn

The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has kept the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas — operating at a fraction of normal capacity, pushing Brent crude from $72.48/barrel before the war to peaks near $120/barrel before settling around $93/barrel by early June. Experts including Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser and University of California San Diego's David Victor warn that supply chain disruptions are already 'locked in' for at least three to six months even if hostilities ceased immediately, due to the time required to restore shipping confidence, repair damaged infrastructure, and replenish depleted strategic reserves. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, which sustained strikes knocking out 17% of the country's LNG capacity, could take three to five years to fully repair, according to Qatari officials. The International Energy Agency's release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves is expected to run dry by late summer, after which analysts warn oil could spike to $150/barrel, potentially triggering a global recession. US inflation reached 4.2% in May — up from 2.4% before the war — while President Trump drew criticism for appearing to welcome the figures, claiming US forces were covertly moving oil shipments through the strait. Gas prices at the pump have shown modest recent declines, averaging $4.15/gallon nationally, but analysts caution that extreme volatility remains, with summer prices potentially ranging anywhere from below $4 to above $5 per gallon depending on how the conflict evolves.