Iran War's Energy Crisis Will Persist Long After Peace Deal, Experts Warn

Despite a fragile ceasefire and ongoing peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with shipping traffic at a fraction of normal levels. Top oil executives, including Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser and Chevron's Mike Wirth, warn that even immediate reopening would require 30-45 days of confidence-building before shipping resumes, and could be a "stop and start" process vulnerable to sporadic attacks. Beyond shipping delays, extensive physical damage to Gulf energy infrastructure—including Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex, which lost 17% of its capacity—will require years to repair, with costs estimated between $25 billion and $58 billion. LNG producers face additional delays from contractual disputes and force majeure claims that could affect cargo schedules into 2027. The cumulative effect keeps oil prices elevated, driving up global inflation, fertilizer costs, and food prices worldwide.