Global migration has nearly tripled since 2000, reaching 35 million annually in 2023, according to detailed new maps
Researchers have created the most detailed maps of global migration in 33 years, showing migration has surged from 13 million people per year in 2000 to around 35 million in 2023. The study analyzed migration patterns across 230 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 using AI models trained on multiple data sources. The findings provide unprecedented insight into migration drivers including economic change, climate, conflict, and policy, with applications for planning in education, social services, and labor markets.
A study published in Nature on June 10 reveals that global migration has increased dramatically over the past two decades, from 13 million people annually in 2000 to approximately 35 million in 2023. Researchers analyzed migration flows to and from 230 countries and territories between 1990 and 2023, using an artificial-intelligence model trained on data from the United Nations, national statistics agencies, and social media platforms like Facebook. The hybrid approach combined classical mathematical models with deep-learning networks incorporating dozens of factors—including economic status, trade relationships, religious similarities, conflicts, colonial ties, and language—to estimate annual migration flows with greater precision than previously available. The study identifies major migration drivers such as economic change, climate conditions, conflict, and policy reforms, exemplified by the 1994 migration of nearly 950,000 people from Rwanda to the Democratic Republic of the Congo following civil war. Demographers note this represents a significant advance over previous data collection methods, which relied on five- and ten-year intervals that masked shorter-term migration patterns and temporary movements.
What's missing
The study's limitations regarding data gaps in certain nations are acknowledged—some countries do not consistently collect emigration or immigration information—but the specific methodologies used to address or compensate for these gaps in the AI model are not detailed. Additionally, the relative reliability or weighting of different data sources (UN, national statistics, Facebook) in the hybrid model is not explained.
What different sources said
- Nature NewsCenter
Human migration has surged since 2000 — these maps reveal where people are going
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