European confidence in US as ally drops to historic low, survey finds

The ECFR survey, polling 19,481 respondents across Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, found that half of Europeans now view the US as a 'necessary partner' rather than an ally, while 25% consider it a rival or outright adversary — a share that has grown most sharply in Denmark, France, Spain, and Switzerland. Majorities in every country polled expressed doubt that the US would come to their defence if attacked, while most said they trusted European neighbours to do so, a pattern confirmed by net-negative confidence scores for US defence commitments across all surveyed nations. In response, Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending, with support rising an average of four percentage points since November 2025, and 47% back collective EU borrowing for defence — though strong majorities in Italy, Austria, and Germany oppose cutting domestic public spending to fund it. Most respondents favour buying European military hardware over American equipment, with Poland the sole outlier, and there is growing openness to a European nuclear deterrent. Despite an ongoing energy crunch — for which roughly 60% of respondents blame the US — Europeans remain firmly opposed to resuming Russian fossil fuel imports, with only Bulgaria, Hungary, and Italy showing significant support for doing so, while majorities across the continent favour prioritising renewables. On Ukraine, most Europeans view the country as an ally or partner, but there is no public consensus for fast-tracking EU membership or deploying peacekeeping troops, and far-right party electorates in several countries increasingly view Ukraine as a rival or adversary. Notably, most Europeans — including 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden — believe transatlantic relations will improve once Trump leaves office, suggesting the shift reflects frustration with the current administration rather than a permanent rupture.