Climate and Land-Use Changes Projected to Expand Tick-Borne and West Nile Virus Transmission Across Europe
A new study using species distribution models projects that tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk will increase across Europe through 2050, with shifting seasonal patterns. Historical analysis shows climate change primarily drove shifts in seasonal transmission timing, while land-use changes affected vector habitat suitability. The findings highlight the need for coordinated transnational public health strategies to manage the expanding disease burden.
Researchers developed spatiotemporal species distribution models to assess how climate and land-use changes have historically affected, and will continue to affect, the spread and seasonal dynamics of TBEV and WNV in Europe. By modeling virus occurrence as dependent on vector suitability and incorporating monthly environmental predictions from the 1970s through the 2050s, the team was able to disentangle the relative contributions of climate versus land-use drivers. Historical attribution analysis revealed that climatic changes were the primary driver of shifts in seasonal transmission risk timing, while land-use changes mainly influenced the absolute suitability of vector habitats. Projections indicate continent-wide increases in transmission risk for both viruses, with TBEV showing pronounced phenological shifts including a dominant spring peak and delayed autumn peak extending into October. These prolonged seasonal transmission windows are expected to create geographic hotspots that both intensify and expand across large regions, underscoring the urgency of coordinated transnational prevention and intervention strategies.
What's missing
The study's own limitations and caveats are not detailed in the provided abstract. Specific information about model validation, uncertainty quantification, the spatial resolution of projections, and assumptions underlying the counterfactual historical simulations would strengthen interpretation of the findings.
What different sources said
- bioRxivCenter
Past and future phenology changes of zoonotic vector-borne diseases under climate and land-use change
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