Climate and Land-Use Changes Projected to Expand Tick-Borne and West Nile Virus Transmission Across Europe
A new preprint study projects that transmission risk for tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) will rise continent-wide across Europe through the 2050s, with longer and more intense seasonal windows. Researchers used spatiotemporal species distribution models to separate the historical roles of climate change—which drove seasonal timing shifts—from land-use change, which primarily affected the overall abundance of vector habitat. The findings suggest that without coordinated transnational responses, Europe faces a substantially expanded public health burden from these two vector-borne diseases.
Using monthly environmental suitability models spanning the 1970s through the 2050s, researchers modeled how TBEV and WNV—and their primary arthropod vectors—have responded and will respond to climate and land-use changes across Europe. Counterfactual historical simulations allowed the team to attribute past changes: land-use shifts mainly altered the absolute suitability of vector habitats, while climatic changes were the dominant driver of shifts in the seasonal timing of transmission risk. Looking forward, TBEV is projected to experience pronounced phenological changes, including a stronger spring transmission peak and an autumn peak delayed into October, effectively lengthening the at-risk season. WNV transmission risk is also projected to rise broadly across the continent. Both viruses are expected to form intensifying hotspots that expand geographically over the coming decades. The authors argue their climate-informed models can guide the timing and spatial targeting of public health interventions, and they call for coordinated transnational strategies to manage the growing burden of these diseases.
What's missing
As a preprint posted to bioRxiv, this study has not yet undergone formal peer review, and its projections carry the uncertainties inherent to species distribution models, including assumptions about future climate and land-use scenarios, vector range dynamics, and the relationship between environmental suitability and actual human disease incidence. The study does not appear to address potential adaptive responses by public health systems that could mitigate projected outcomes.
What different sources said
- bioRxivCenter
Past and future phenology changes of zoonotic vector-borne diseases under climate and land-use change
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