Alternative shipping networks and covert oil transfers keep crude prices below $200 despite Middle East disruptions
Oil prices have surged following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, but have remained below the $200-per-barrel levels analysts feared. Maritime intelligence firms report that covert ship-to-ship transfers and alternative shipping routes—including clandestine "ghost" shipments and indirect trade corridors through Iraqi ports—are allowing crude and cargo to continue flowing despite the disruption. These hidden supply channels are helping stabilize global markets, though some analysts warn that depleting commercial inventories and emergency reserves suggest the current calm may be temporary.
Since March, when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes, oil markets have experienced significant disruption compounded by a US naval blockade imposed in April. However, maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers reports that alternative shipping networks have emerged to mitigate supply shortages, including covert ship-to-ship transfers of crude from Arab Gulf producers and indirect trade corridors routing cargo through Iraq's Umm Qasr port. According to Piper Sandler, approximately 900,000 barrels per day moved through clandestine routes in May, while JPMorgan estimates that covert shipments reached about 2.1 million barrels per day in late May. These hidden flows, combined with vessels paying tolls to Iranian-linked entities, have helped cushion the market impact and prevent crude from reaching the $200-per-barrel levels some analysts once predicted. However, experts caution that commercial inventories continue to fall and emergency reserves are being depleted, with Piper Sandler forecasting Brent crude to average $130 per barrel in coming months, suggesting current price stability may be temporary.
What's missing
The article does not provide independent verification of the specific volume figures cited (900,000 barrels per day via covert routes, 2.1 million barrels per day in late May) from sources other than Piper Sandler and JPMorgan. Additionally, the current date of the article is unclear, making it difficult to assess whether the predictions about future Brent crude prices have materialized or proven accurate. The article also does not detail the specific mechanisms by which vessels "switch off tracking systems" or the international legal frameworks governing such activities.
What different sources said
- Times of IndiaCenter
Secret routes & ghost tankers: Here's why crude hasn't hit $200 yet
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