100 Days Into the Iran War: Global Markets Show Mixed Reactions Amid Fragile Ceasefire

The war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has now reached its 100-day mark, with a fragile ceasefire holding but no lasting peace deal in sight. Global equity markets initially sold off following the first strikes, but U.S. markets have since recovered and the S&P 500 has hit new all-time highs, buoyed largely by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings for a select group of companies. European stocks have lagged behind, as the region is more exposed to rising energy costs stemming from the conflict. Government bond yields have surged across major economies, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since before the 2008 Financial Crisis, reflecting investor concerns about higher inflation and prolonged elevated interest rates. The Strait of Hormuz's status remains a critical variable, with analysts warning that a sustained closure could accelerate inflation and eventually trigger demand destruction. Economists and investment officers note that while markets are currently looking past the conflict, the longer it drags on, the harder it will be to ignore its macroeconomic consequences. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks, particularly in the U.S., South Korea, and Taiwan, have been notable outperformers amid the broader uncertainty.